Hulstria
76 | popular_vote1 = 21,143,750 | percentage1 = 38.10% | swing1 = 11.84% | image2 = | leader2 = Emilia Lahnsteiger | leader_since2 = 3606 | party2 = Liberale Volkspartei | leaders_seat2 = Kien-Korlburg-Nord, Hulstria | last_election2 = 35.32%, 228 seats | seats2 = 201 | seat_change2 = 27 | popular_vote2 = 17,224,417 | percentage2 = 31.04% | swing2 = 4.28% | image3 = | leader3 = Shizuko Kurosaki | leader_since3 = ? | party3 = Hulstrianisch-Sozialistische Partei | leaders_seat3 = ? | last_election3 = 38.42%, 242 seats | seats3 = 193 | seat_change3 = 49 | popular_vote3 = 17,129,305 | percentage3 = 30.87% | swing3 = 7.55% | title = Staatsminister | posttitle = Resulting SM | before_election = Emilia Lahnsteiger | before_party = Liberale Volkspartei | after_election = Franziska Schäfer | after_party = Hosianisch-Demokratisches Verbund |color1 = FF8C00 |color2 = FFFF00 |color3 = FF0000 |seats_before1 = |seats_before2 = }} Background The election was called at the initiative of the HDV, which at that time was the smaller partner in a centre-right coalition with the LVP under Staatsministerin Emilia Lahnsteiger. The main opposition was formed by the HSP, but the Social Democrats were widely seen as an overly passive opposition, thus heavy losses were expected. LVP and HDV agreed on the election date in early December, and campaigning also started at that time. Campaign LVP The Liberals ran a feel-good campaign emphasizing the economic boom which they believed was the result of the tax cuts and deregulation policies pursued by Finance Minister Harald Matsuyama and Trade and Industry Minister Ariane von Gehrfeld. They mostly used simplistic slogans promising to maintain the successes of the status quo, such as "STEUERN RUNTER, WACHSTUM RAUF". On the other hand, they also tried to exploit the presumed popularity of the Staatsministerin, with election posters showing nothing but a portrait of Lahnsteiger next to catchwords like Freiheit! or Wohlstand!. HDV The HDV gambled on a campaign that was slightly different. The party had emerged from the coalition row over the Matsuyama cuts stronger after the cuts were withdrawn, and HDV strategists tried to harness this by promising to take a middle way, with key campaign elements being the opposition to further cuts and proposals for investment and reform riding on the economic growth: a key HDV slogan was Wachstum liegt in der Mitte (variously other things lay in the centre as well, depending on the slogan), emphasising that a moderate course was essential. In in the successful Junger Verbund YouTube ad]]addition to Schäfer, the popular Infrastructure and Transport Minister, Janna Goddestreu, was heavily featured in the campaign, alongside Deputy Leader Obe Arinaga. The Junger Verbund released a popular YouTube video featuring Goddestreu in which she explained her objections to the cuts and passionately put Hosian Democracy for a younger generation. In the end, the strategy paid off as public opinion began to swing more and more the way of the HDV, especially on the matter of the economy. HSP Opinion Polling Parties The LVP, banking on accelerating growth, lower taxes and a balanced budget which it ascribed to its neoliberal fiscal and economic policy, held a strong lead for most of December, but the HDV gained ground continuously, as the HSP struggled and most of its voters switched to the Hosian Democrats. Near the end of December, a neck-and-neck race emerged, and the tide continued to turn until the HDV gained a solid lead. The HSP meanwhile managed to improve its numbers from under 20% to the mid-twenties. Preferred Staatsminister Boosted by strong growth and good economic figures, Emilia Lahnsteiger held a small, yet constant lead over her main rival Franziska Schäfer from early December until Christmas, but after the holiday break Schäfer pulled ahead and widened her lead until election day. The shift has been explained by analysts as the result of public opinion ascribing the economic boom more and more to the HDV throughout the course of the campaign as they head voted for the Liberals' tax cuts but opposed their massive spending reduction plans. Outcome The HDV scored a decisive victory with surpassed expectations in opinion polls, although gains had been expected before. The HSP also performed much better than expected, as it garnered more than 30% while polls had seen them in the low 20s. The LVP performed worse than expected, although a defeat was widely assumed in the last days of the campaign. Following the election, the orange-yellow coalition was renewed, this time with Schäfer as Staatsministerin. Category:Politics of Hulstria & Gao-Soto Category:Elections